The Global HIV Epidemic:
Where We Are in 2026

The global HIV response has expanded treatment and reduced new infections and deaths. This 2026 review uses UNAIDS estimates for 2025, alongside clearly dated historical evidence, to explain both that progress and the barriers that remain.

This is the state of the global HIV epidemic. The numbers, the geography, the populations being left behind, and the crisis that has put everything at risk.

The numbers: 2025 estimates

These are UNAIDS estimates published in July 2026 for the year 2025, not exact counts. The uncertainty ranges are 35.3–47.5 million people living with HIV, 950,000–1.7 million new infections, and 430,000–780,000 AIDS-related deaths. Estimates can be revised as data and methods improve.1

The progress is real — and remarkable

It is worth pausing on what has actually been achieved. The global HIV response, funded by a combination of PEPFAR, the Global Fund, domestic governments, and multilateral institutions, has produced one of the most significant public health achievements in modern history.

• New infections fell 65% from the estimated 1994 peak of 3.5 million to 1.2 million in 2025.
• AIDS-related deaths fell 73% from the 2004 peak and 57% from 2010 to 2025.
• 32.1 million people accessed antiretroviral therapy in 2025, compared with 7.6 million in 2010.
• 88% of people living with HIV knew their status in 2025.
• 78% of all people living with HIV accessed treatment in 2025; substantial gaps remain.2

These are not abstract statistics. They represent individuals who are alive, raising children, working, and living full lives because treatment reached them. The global HIV response has been, by any measure, one of the great humanitarian achievements of the 21st century.

The epidemic by region

Sub-Saharan Africa: the epicenter

Adding UNAIDS’s eastern/southern and western/central Africa estimates gives about 26.3 million people living with HIV in 2025—roughly 64% of the global total. Eastern and southern Africa accounted for 21.1 million, just over half worldwide. Treatment coverage was estimated at 85% in eastern/southern Africa and 74% in western/central Africa.3

Eastern Europe and Central Asia: going in the wrong direction

Eastern Europe and Central Asia had an estimated 2 million people living with HIV, 120,000 new infections and 56% treatment coverage in 2025. It is not the only region with rising infections: UNAIDS’s 2025 report documented increases from 2010 to 2024 in this region, Latin America, and the Middle East/North Africa. Stigma, punitive policies and limited services can obstruct prevention and care; regional totals do not establish one cause for every country.4

Latin America and the Caribbean

UNAIDS estimated 2.6 million people living with HIV in Latin America and 340,000 in the Caribbean in 2025. Estimated new infections were 140,000 and 13,000, respectively. Treatment reached 71% and 73% of people with HIV. National patterns and access for key populations vary; a regional average should not be treated as a description of every country.^[3]

Asia-Pacific

Asia and the Pacific had an estimated 7.1 million people living with HIV and 280,000 new infections in 2025, with treatment coverage of 72%. These totals cover very different national epidemics and health systems.^[3]

Middle East and North Africa

The Middle East and North Africa had an estimated 240,000 people living with HIV and 22,000 new infections in 2025. Treatment coverage was 53% overall and 30% among children aged 0–14. Those gaps indicate a need to expand services; they do not mean services are impossible to deliver.^[3]

Who is being left behind

The aggregate global numbers mask profound inequalities in who has access to testing, treatment, and prevention. UNAIDS is consistent in its finding that key populations — gay and bisexual men, sex workers, transgender women, and people who inject drugs — bear a disproportionate share of new infections despite representing a small share of the global population.

• UNAIDS identifies discrimination, marginalization and punitive laws as barriers affecting key populations and their partners.^[5]
• UNAIDS’s 2026 fact sheet reports HIV acquisition risk among gay men and other men who have sex with men at 18 times that among adults aged 15–49 overall. This is a relative-risk comparison, not a worldwide prevalence estimate for every gay man.5
• In 2025, 55% of children aged 0–14 with HIV accessed treatment, compared with 79% of adults aged 15 and older.^[5]
• In 2025, adult men had lower diagnosis and treatment coverage than adult women. Among people on treatment, estimated viral suppression was 95% for both groups.^[5]

The 95-95-95 targets: where we actually stand

The 2025 95-95-95 targets use three different denominators: 95% of all people with HIV know their status; 95% of those diagnosed access treatment; and 95% of those on treatment have viral suppression. Meeting all three would mean approximately 86% of all people with HIV are suppressed.^[6]

For 2025, the corresponding global estimates were 88–89–95. Expressed with all people living with HIV as the denominator at each stage, they were 88% diagnosed, 78% treated and 74% suppressed. The world therefore did not meet the full set of 2025 targets. These two ways of presenting the care continuum must not be interchanged.6

The 2025 funding crisis: what it means

U.S. funding disruptions in early 2025 interrupted HIV services and created uncertainty for organizations and patients. The effects varied by country and service; PEPFAR did not cease every service worldwide at once. UNAIDS’s 2025 report describes PEPFAR-supported treatment for 20.6 million people in 55 countries in 2024, showing the scale of what was at stake.7

UNAIDS’s July 2025 modelling projected 6 million additional infections and 4 million additional AIDS-related deaths during 2025–2029 if U.S.-supported HIV services collapsed entirely. This was a conditional scenario, not an observed outcome or an inevitable forecast for any funding reduction.8

The Global Fund’s final Eighth Replenishment total was $12.64 billion in pledges, announced in February 2026. It approved $10.78 billion in country allocations for 2026–2028. These resources cover HIV, tuberculosis and malaria; they are not an HIV-only annual budget.10

A reason for hope: the prevention revolution

Twice-yearly lenacapavir PrEP produced zero infections among 2,134 participants in PURPOSE 1 and two among 2,179 participants in the primary PURPOSE 2 analysis—96% lower incidence than PURPOSE 2’s estimated background rate. These results do not guarantee protection for every person. U.S. approval followed in June 2025. Starting oral doses, HIV testing, two injections per dosing visit and continued clinical follow-up are required.9

Long-acting prevention may make PrEP easier for some people to use, but price, supply and access remain central. UNAIDS’s July 2026 report describes an uneven rollout and continuing licensing barriers. A scientific advance has limited population impact unless people can obtain and keep using it.^[11]

What this means for the United States

The global and U.S. responses share challenges such as stigma, unequal access to care and unstable funding. The communities most affected, however, differ across countries. U.S. racial categories and transmission patterns should not be applied to the whole world.

The United States is a participant in the global response. PEPFAR’s treatment support and the work of national health systems, community organizations and other funders are closely connected. Decisions about that support affect real people’s ability to continue prevention and care.^[7]